Dati Coronavirus Lombardia

Aggiornamento al 17/11/2022

Grafici andamenti

Dettaglio andamento casi

Analisi predittiva variazione nuovi decessi

Initial log joint probability = -26.2886
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
      99       1864.93    0.00825503       304.709      0.3521      0.3521      124   
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
     199       1937.51    0.00511547       159.136       1.032      0.1032      259   
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
     287       1953.91    0.00190351       234.456   1.933e-05       0.001      406  LS failed, Hessian reset 
     299        1954.6    0.00166954       98.8256       1.895      0.1895      421   
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
     399       1955.09     0.0017523       152.116           1           1      554   
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
     499       1968.93    0.00980867       118.912           1           1      695   
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
     599       1973.73    0.00051109       55.2625      0.3104      0.3104      817   
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
     699       1974.26   1.15545e-05       73.1709      0.3707           1      950   
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
     799       1974.35    0.00070705       56.7018      0.4186           1     1092   
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
     827       1974.37   3.67036e-05       46.0313   5.313e-07       0.001     1164  LS failed, Hessian reset 
     864       1974.37   3.17739e-05       70.4302   4.861e-07       0.001     1271  LS failed, Hessian reset 
     891       1974.37    4.4919e-08       56.8097      0.2839      0.2839     1307   
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

Stima $R_t$= 1.31 (1.21 - 1.3800000000000001)

Analisi andamento $R_t$

Initial log joint probability = -41.343
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
      79       1541.97        0.0133       156.945   0.0001485       0.001      140  LS failed, Hessian reset 
      99       1543.69    0.00118124       106.248           1           1      162   
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
     199       1543.91   1.10716e-06        74.463      0.7926      0.7926      301   
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
     243       1543.96   5.49069e-05       91.7461   7.546e-07       0.001      442  LS failed, Hessian reset 
     289       1543.97   1.01081e-07       77.8053      0.3337           1      507   
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

fonte: Dati DPC