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Aggiornamento al 17/11/2022

Grafici andamenti

Andamento casi

Analisi predittiva variazione nuovi decessi

Initial log joint probability = -15.3101
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
      99        1351.4   0.000483856        77.439      0.3066      0.3066      139   
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
     115       1353.99    0.00174552       142.428   2.028e-05       0.001      202  LS failed, Hessian reset 
     199       1357.73    0.00826984       157.565     0.01388      0.3102      307   
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
     279        1359.8   0.000991634       71.1059   1.073e-05       0.001      458  LS failed, Hessian reset 
     299       1359.85   8.36562e-05       67.3923      0.3147           1      486   
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
     399       1360.08   8.46505e-05       60.3155      0.5231      0.5231      606   
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
     421       1360.11   0.000199415       77.4683    2.97e-06       0.001      668  LS failed, Hessian reset 
     499       1360.34    0.00011518       72.2343       0.127       0.127      763   
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
     529       1360.35   5.97909e-05       73.2585    6.82e-07       0.001      840  LS failed, Hessian reset 
     569       1360.35   1.04563e-07       62.8604           1           1      896   
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

Stima $R_t$= 1.26 (1.1500000000000001 - 1.35)

Analisi andamento $R_t$

Initial log joint probability = -39.1596
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
      93       1418.34    0.00170735       142.146   4.734e-06       0.001      142  LS failed, Hessian reset 
      99       1419.89    0.00908137        112.52      0.4048           1      149   
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
     148       1421.99    0.00193517       238.112    1.56e-05       0.001      262  LS failed, Hessian reset 
     186       1422.31    0.00015538       91.4487   1.825e-06       0.001      352  LS failed, Hessian reset 
     199       1422.32   8.36264e-06       89.9582      0.9362      0.9362      370   
    Iter      log prob        ||dx||      ||grad||       alpha      alpha0  # evals  Notes 
     230       1422.32   1.44405e-06       71.1971   1.765e-08       0.001      449  LS failed, Hessian reset 
     236       1422.32   5.82715e-08       56.9054      0.2082           1      460   
Optimization terminated normally: 
  Convergence detected: relative gradient magnitude is below tolerance

fonte: Dati DPC